Allister Crossley v Steve Baker (Wed 05 Jun 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-13,10-15,15-13,14-15.
Starting level for
Allister Crossley:
1,827, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,157, level confidence: 68%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Allister Crossley.
Steve Baker won 50% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
1% better than Allister Crossley in this match.
As Steve Baker has played below his allowed range at 1,979, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Steve Baker would normally have been playing at level 2,140 (based on typical behaviour), Allister Crossley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 5.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to -4.5% and Allister Crossley changes to +5.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes -2.8% and for Allister Crossley becomes +3.2%.
Given Steve Baker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.
Given Allister Crossley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Steve Baker is -0.8% and for Allister Crossley is +1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 83%, Allister Crossley: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 77%, Allister Crossley: 76%.
Final level for Allister Crossley:
1,845, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,140, level confidence: 77%.