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Rex Hedrick v Lwamba Chileshe (Fri 07 Jun 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 34,086, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Lwamba Chileshe: 14,319, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Lwamba Chileshe.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 106% better than Lwamba Chileshe in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,371 and 34,086 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 29,533 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Lwamba Chileshe is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 76%, Lwamba Chileshe: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 71%, Lwamba Chileshe: 84%.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 34,086, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Lwamba Chileshe: 14,319, level confidence: 84%.