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Ross Lillis v Michael Aley (Thu 06 Jun 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 5-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Ross Lillis: 5,041, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,660, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Ross Lillis.

Michael Aley won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 106% better than Ross Lillis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Aley actually played at a level of 8,924 and Ross Lillis at a level of 4,327. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to +12% and Ross Lillis changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes +3.9% and for Ross Lillis becomes -4.6%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ross Lillis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is +2.1% and for Ross Lillis is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 90%, Ross Lillis: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 77%, Ross Lillis: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ross Lillis: 4,889, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,810, level confidence: 77%.