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Elliot Selby v Michael Aley (Mon 10 Jun 2019)

Match won by Elliot Selby. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Elliot Selby: 8,594, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,695, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Elliot Selby to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Michael Aley.

Elliot Selby won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Selby played 47% better than Michael Aley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliot Selby actually played at a level of 9,869 and Michael Aley at a level of 6,701. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Selby changes to +14% and Michael Aley changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Selby becomes +4.2% and for Michael Aley becomes -3.8%.

Given Elliot Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Essex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Elliot Selby is +2.2% and for Michael Aley is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Selby: 80%, Michael Aley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Selby: 69%, Michael Aley: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliot Selby: 8,769, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,532, level confidence: 76%.