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David Poulton v Torrie Malik (Wed 12 Jun 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 7-11,11-6,10-12,11-6,9-11.

Starting level for David Poulton: 5,451, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,532, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 20% better than David Poulton.

Torrie Malik won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 6% better than David Poulton in this match.

As Torrie Malik has played below her allowed range at 6,084, her level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 6,466 (based on typical behaviour), David Poulton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to -3.6% and David Poulton changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes -1.8% and for David Poulton becomes +2.3%.

Given Torrie Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to her level change.

Given David Poulton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Torrie Malik is -1.1% and for David Poulton is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 92%, David Poulton: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 87%, David Poulton: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Poulton: 5,521, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,454, level confidence: 87%.