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Richard Grant v Michael Aley (Wed 29 May 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 5-11,10-12,9-11.

Starting level for Richard Grant: 4,636, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,554, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Richard Grant.

Michael Aley won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 46% better than Richard Grant in this match.

In this case, Michael Aley played at level 6,911 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 7,053 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Grant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to 0% and Richard Grant changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes 0% and for Richard Grant becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is 0% and for Richard Grant is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 88%, Richard Grant: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 83%, Richard Grant: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Grant: 4,658, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,543, level confidence: 83%.