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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Diego Elias (Mon 10 Jun 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 6-11,11-3,17-15.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,203, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 53,504, level confidence: 70%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Diego Elias.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 67% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 19% better than Diego Elias in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 64,845, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 67,712 (based on typical behaviour), Diego Elias played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 2.9% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -1.4% and Diego Elias changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -0.5% and for Diego Elias becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 82%, Diego Elias: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 79%, Diego Elias: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,735, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 54,093, level confidence: 80%.