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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Simon Rösner (Wed 12 Jun 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,520, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 54,410, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Simon Rösner.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 69% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 69% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 80,008 and Simon Rösner at a level of 47,278. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +9.8% and Simon Rösner changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +2.2% and for Simon Rösner becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 93%, Simon Rösner: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 81%, Simon Rösner: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70,793, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 53,471, level confidence: 82%.