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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Yash Fadte (Thu 13 Jun 2019)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 36,815, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yash Fadte: 16,545, level confidence: 62%.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing 123% better than Yash Fadte.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 154% better than Yash Fadte in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 39,322 and Yash Fadte at a level of 15,490. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +3.2% and Yash Fadte changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +1.2% and for Yash Fadte becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '76th National Championship, Pune' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 93%, Yash Fadte: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 87%, Yash Fadte: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 37,254, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Yash Fadte: 16,269, level confidence: 74%.