SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Karim Abdel Gawad v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Thu 13 Jun 2019)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-8,11-2.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 62,349, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 71,565, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 120% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 99,078 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 45,035. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 59% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +38% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +6.5% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Tour Finals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karim Abdel Gawad is limited to +4.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 74%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 46%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 56%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 65,322, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 70,240, level confidence: 56%.