Mahesh Mangaonkar v Veer Chotrani (Sat 15 Jun 2019)
Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-2.
Starting level for
Mahesh Mangaonkar:
37,705, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Veer Chotrani:
16,486, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mahesh Mangaonkar to win as he is currently playing
129% better than Veer Chotrani.
Mahesh Mangaonkar won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played
175% better than Veer Chotrani in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of
41,345 and Veer Chotrani at a level of
15,035. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +6% and Veer Chotrani changes to -6.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +1.7% and for Veer Chotrani becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for '76th National Championship, Pune' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 93%, Veer Chotrani: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 85%, Veer Chotrani: 83%.
Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar:
38,351, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Veer Chotrani:
16,150, level confidence: 83%.