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Adam Pritchard v Michael Aley (Mon 17 Jun 2019)

Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 16-14,4-11,6-11,11-7,8-11.

Starting level for Adam Pritchard: 6,137, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Aley: 7,525, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Adam Pritchard.

Michael Aley won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played 13% better than Adam Pritchard in this match.

As Michael Aley has played below his allowed range at 7,095, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Aley would normally have been playing at level 7,424 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Pritchard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Aley changes to -2.4% and Adam Pritchard changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Aley becomes -1.3% and for Adam Pritchard becomes +1.8%.

Given Michael Aley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Pritchard's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Middlesex Mens Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Michael Aley is -0.7% and for Adam Pritchard is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 86%, Adam Pritchard: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 82%, Adam Pritchard: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Pritchard: 6,192, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Michael Aley: 7,463, level confidence: 82%.