SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Joel Preece v Patrick Rooney (Sat 22 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 7-11,4-11,11-3,4-11.

Starting level for Joel Preece: 7,243, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 31,251, level confidence: 59%.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing 331% better than Joel Preece.

Patrick Rooney won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 29% better than Joel Preece in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Patrick Rooney was taking it easy by anything up to 37%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,374 and 31,251 without affecting his level.

As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 10,771, his level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 19,665 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Preece played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 45%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.9% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -6.9% and Joel Preece changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -2% and for Joel Preece becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 77%, Joel Preece: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 42%, Joel Preece: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Preece: 7,619, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 30,602, level confidence: 42%.