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Greg Lobban v George Parker (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,4-11,11-9.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,057, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for George Parker: 39,778, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Greg Lobban.

Greg Lobban won 67% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 8% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 40,462 and George Parker at a level of 37,414. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +4.6% and George Parker changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.5% and for George Parker becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is +1.2% and for George Parker is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 77%, George Parker: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 72%, George Parker: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,470, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for George Parker: 39,286, level confidence: 80%.