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Mazen Hesham v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 4-11,11-8,8-11.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 40,079, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63,366, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Mazen Hesham.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 67% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 25% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

As Mohamed Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 52,799, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 59,601 (based on typical behaviour), Mazen Hesham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 7.1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -3.1% and Mazen Hesham changes to +5.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -1.1% and for Mazen Hesham becomes +1.5%.

Given Mohamed Elshorbagy's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mazen Hesham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy is -0.8% and for Mazen Hesham is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 89%, Mazen Hesham: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 79%, Mazen Hesham: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 40,540, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62,794, level confidence: 79%.