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Diego Gobbi v Carlos Cornes (Tue 05 Mar 2019)

Match won by Carlos Cornes. Result: 8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 19,178, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 24,706, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Carlos Cornes to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Diego Gobbi.

Carlos Cornes won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carlos Cornes played 43% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carlos Cornes actually played at a level of 26,055 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 18,185. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes changes to +3.2% and Diego Gobbi changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes becomes +1.3% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Carlos Cornes is +1.1% and for Diego Gobbi is -1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carlos Cornes: 85%, Diego Gobbi: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carlos Cornes: 80%, Diego Gobbi: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Gobbi: 18,917, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Carlos Cornes: 24,939, level confidence: 80%.