Chris Simpson v Daniel Mekbib (Tue 19 Mar 2019)
Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 10-12,11-1,11-4.
Starting level for
Chris Simpson:
35,495, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Daniel Mekbib:
27,277, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Daniel Mekbib.
Chris Simpson won 67% of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played
54% better than Daniel Mekbib in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of
38,629 and Daniel Mekbib at a level of
25,064. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.7% and 7.7% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 5.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +5.7% and Daniel Mekbib changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +1.7% and for Daniel Mekbib becomes -1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is +1.4% and for Daniel Mekbib is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 86%, Daniel Mekbib: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 79%, Daniel Mekbib: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Simpson:
35,951, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib:
26,866, level confidence: 84%.