Alan Clyne v Tom Ford (Tue 19 Mar 2019)
Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 9-11,11-0,11-8.
Starting level for
Alan Clyne:
35,924, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Tom Ford:
20,702, level confidence: 56%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing
74% better than Tom Ford.
Alan Clyne won 67% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played
42% better than Tom Ford in this match.
As Alan Clyne has played below his allowed range at 29,606, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Clyne would normally have been playing at level 32,987 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Ford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 4.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 3.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to -0.5% and Tom Ford changes to +3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes -0.2% and for Tom Ford becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Alan Clyne is 0% and for Tom Ford is +1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 82%, Tom Ford: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 74%, Tom Ford: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Alan Clyne:
35,813, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Tom Ford:
20,912, level confidence: 68%.