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Olli Tuominen v Daryl Selby (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 10-12,14-16.

Starting level for Olli Tuominen: 30,688, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,267, level confidence: 38%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Olli Tuominen.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 29% better than Olli Tuominen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 38,969 and Olli Tuominen at a level of 30,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +1.2% and Olli Tuominen changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +0.5% and for Olli Tuominen becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is +0.4% and for Olli Tuominen is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 62%, Olli Tuominen: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 60%, Olli Tuominen: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olli Tuominen: 30,573, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,364, level confidence: 60%.