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Raphael Kandra v Cameron Pilley (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 7-11,13-15.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 42,283, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 37,504, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Cameron Pilley.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 38% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 46,822 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 33,868. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +10.8% and Raphael Kandra changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +2.6% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -3.6%.

Given Raphael Kandra's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Cameron Pilley is +2.2% and for Raphael Kandra is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 91%, Raphael Kandra: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 73%, Raphael Kandra: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 40,995, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,277, level confidence: 73%.