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Daryl Selby v Tim Vail (Tue 02 Apr 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,491, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 20,855, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 85% better than Tim Vail.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 38% better than Tim Vail in this match.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 29,753, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 34,696 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Vail played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 7.2% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 5.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -1.7% and Tim Vail changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -0.7% and for Tim Vail becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is -0.6% and for Tim Vail is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 91%, Tim Vail: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 79%, Tim Vail: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,250, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,154, level confidence: 74%.