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Daryl Selby v Ramit Tandon (Sat 01 Jun 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 36,202, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 34,362, level confidence: 54%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Ramit Tandon.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 49% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 43,113 and Ramit Tandon at a level of 28,854. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +13% and Ramit Tandon changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +3% and for Ramit Tandon becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is +2.5% and for Ramit Tandon is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 76%, Ramit Tandon: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 64%, Ramit Tandon: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,150, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon: 33,499, level confidence: 62%.