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Paul Coll v Saurav Ghosal (Sat 01 Jun 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 66,238, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 51,138, level confidence: 67%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Paul Coll won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 120% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 86,325 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 39,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to +15% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes +3% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -3.9%.

Given Paul Coll's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Given Saurav Ghosal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.6% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Paul Coll is +2.1% and for Saurav Ghosal is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 93%, Saurav Ghosal: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 71%, Saurav Ghosal: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 67,637, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 49,691, level confidence: 63%.