Cole Becker v Leonel Cardenas (Fri 21 Jun 2019)
Match won by Cole Becker. Result: 11-4,5-11,12-10,11-7.
Starting level for
Cole Becker:
12,744, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Leonel Cardenas:
27,373, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing
115% better than Cole Becker.
Cole Becker won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cole Becker played
24% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cole Becker actually played at a level of
20,796 and Leonel Cardenas at a level of
16,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cole Becker changes to +40% and Leonel Cardenas changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cole Becker becomes +9% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -5.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mississauga Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cole Becker is limited to +7.4% and Leonel Cardenas is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cole Becker: 75%, Leonel Cardenas: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cole Becker: 46%, Leonel Cardenas: 52%.
Final level for Cole Becker:
13,692, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas:
26,070, level confidence: 52%.