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Cole Becker v Leonel Cardenas (Fri 21 Jun 2019)

Match won by Cole Becker. Result: 11-4,5-11,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Cole Becker: 12,744, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Leonel Cardenas: 27,373, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Leonel Cardenas to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Cole Becker.

Cole Becker won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cole Becker played 24% better than Leonel Cardenas in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cole Becker actually played at a level of 20,796 and Leonel Cardenas at a level of 16,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 40% and 40% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cole Becker changes to +40% and Leonel Cardenas changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cole Becker becomes +9% and for Leonel Cardenas becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Mississauga Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cole Becker is limited to +7.4% and Leonel Cardenas is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cole Becker: 75%, Leonel Cardenas: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cole Becker: 46%, Leonel Cardenas: 52%.

Final level for Cole Becker: 13,692, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Leonel Cardenas: 26,070, level confidence: 52%.