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Nathan Lake v Patrick Rooney (Sun 23 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 7-11,5-11,6-11.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 33,823, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 29,978, level confidence: 54%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Patrick Rooney.

Patrick Rooney won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played 83% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Rooney actually played at a level of 43,115 and Nathan Lake at a level of 23,517. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to +41% and Nathan Lake changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes +7.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Patrick Rooney is limited to +5.7% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 73%, Nathan Lake: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 51%, Nathan Lake: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,340, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 31,729, level confidence: 51%.