SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Mon 24 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-4,11-4,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,720, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,834, level confidence: 68%.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 33% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 4,884 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of 3,682. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +27% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +8.9% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -7.6%.

Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 84% has been applied to his level change.

Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 113% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +1.9% and for Thomas Whiteway is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 79%, Thomas Whiteway: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 60%, Thomas Whiteway: 63%.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,792, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,770, level confidence: 63%.