Patrick Fitzpatrick v Thomas Whiteway (Mon 24 Jun 2019)
Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-4,11-4,7-11,11-8.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,720, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteway:
4,834, level confidence: 68%.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing
30% better than Patrick Fitzpatrick.
Patrick Fitzpatrick won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played
33% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of
4,884 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of
3,682. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +27% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +8.9% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -7.6%.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 84% has been applied to his level change.
Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 113% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +1.9% and for Thomas Whiteway is -1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 79%, Thomas Whiteway: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 60%, Thomas Whiteway: 63%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,792, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway:
4,770, level confidence: 63%.