Patrick Fitzpatrick v Robin Crease (Tue 25 Jun 2019)
Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-9,11-7,13-11.
Starting level for
Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,792, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Robin Crease:
3,599, level confidence: 57%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Robin Crease.
Patrick Fitzpatrick won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played
38% better than Robin Crease in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of
4,340 and Robin Crease at a level of
3,145. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +13% and Robin Crease changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +5% and for Robin Crease becomes -5.3%.
Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 86% has been applied to his level change.
Given Robin Crease's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 81% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +1.1% and for Robin Crease is -1.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 77%, Robin Crease: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 67%, Robin Crease: 66%.
Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick:
3,833, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Robin Crease:
3,559, level confidence: 66%.