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Patrick Fitzpatrick v Robin Crease (Tue 25 Jun 2019)

Match won by Patrick Fitzpatrick. Result: 11-9,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,793, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Robin Crease: 3,601, level confidence: 57%.
Patrick Fitzpatrick to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Robin Crease.

Patrick Fitzpatrick won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Fitzpatrick played 38% better than Robin Crease in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Fitzpatrick actually played at a level of 4,342 and Robin Crease at a level of 3,146. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick changes to +13% and Robin Crease changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick becomes +5% and for Robin Crease becomes -5.3%.

Given Patrick Fitzpatrick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 86% has been applied to his level change.

Given Robin Crease's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 81% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Patrick Fitzpatrick is +1.1% and for Robin Crease is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 77%, Robin Crease: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Fitzpatrick: 67%, Robin Crease: 66%.

Final level for Patrick Fitzpatrick: 3,834, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Robin Crease: 3,561, level confidence: 66%.