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Torrie Malik v Saran Nghiem (Sat 08 Jun 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,244, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saran Nghiem: 4,404, level confidence: 53%.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 42% better than Saran Nghiem.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 120% better than Saran Nghiem in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Torrie Malik actually played at a level of 7,778 and Saran Nghiem at a level of 3,535. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to +15% and Saran Nghiem changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes +4.8% and for Saran Nghiem becomes -6.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Silver Event 6 - West Midlands Warwick 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Saran Nghiem is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 86%, Saran Nghiem: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 69%, Saran Nghiem: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,413, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Saran Nghiem: 4,220, level confidence: 59%.