Torrie Malik v Amber Copley (Sun 09 Jun 2019)
Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-3.
Starting level for
Torrie Malik:
6,427, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Amber Copley:
2,496, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing
157% better than Amber Copley.
Torrie Malik won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played
200% better than Amber Copley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Torrie Malik actually played at a level of
6,937 and Amber Copley at a level of
2,312. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to +4.9% and Amber Copley changes to -3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes +2.2% and for Amber Copley becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Silver Event 6 - West Midlands Warwick 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 83%, Amber Copley: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 77%, Amber Copley: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Torrie Malik:
6,556, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Amber Copley:
2,432, level confidence: 86%.