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Michael Pan v Torrie Malik (Mon 24 Jun 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 5-15,9-15,12-15.

Starting level for Michael Pan: 2,029, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,494, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 220% better than Michael Pan.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 73% better than Michael Pan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Torrie Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 3,142 and 6,494 without affecting her level.

In this case, Torrie Malik played at level 4,092 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 4,768 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Pan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to 0% and Michael Pan changes to +8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes 0% and for Michael Pan becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Torrie Malik is 0% and for Michael Pan is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 92%, Michael Pan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 67%, Michael Pan: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Pan: 2,085, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,484, level confidence: 67%.