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Perry Malik v Marcus Cowie (Wed 26 Jun 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,670, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Marcus Cowie: 7,184, level confidence: 51%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Marcus Cowie.

Perry Malik won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 39% better than Marcus Cowie in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,592 and 14,670 without affecting his level.

As Perry Malik has played below his allowed range at 10,291, his level reduction is 2.9% before damping. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 12,771 (based on typical behaviour), Marcus Cowie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to -1.5% and Marcus Cowie changes to +8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes -0.7% and for Marcus Cowie becomes +3.2%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change.

Given Marcus Cowie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is 0% and for Marcus Cowie is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 83%, Marcus Cowie: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 69%, Marcus Cowie: 59%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,608, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Marcus Cowie: 7,300, level confidence: 59%.