Oscar Hill v Shaca Shacaluga (Tue 25 Jun 2019)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,146, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for
Shaca Shacaluga:
3,523, level confidence: 55%.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
46% better than Shaca Shacaluga.
Oscar Hill won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
74% better than Shaca Shacaluga in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
5,611 and Shaca Shacaluga at a level of
3,231. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.4% and 7.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +7.4% and Shaca Shacaluga changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3% and for Shaca Shacaluga becomes -3.1%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 121% has been applied to his level change.
Given Shaca Shacaluga's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 79% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.5% and for Shaca Shacaluga is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 70%, Shaca Shacaluga: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 64%, Shaca Shacaluga: 68%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,174, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Shaca Shacaluga:
3,499, level confidence: 68%.