Oscar Hill v Christian Navas (Wed 26 Jun 2019)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 10-12,11-9,9-11,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,172, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Christian Navas:
5,446, level confidence: 52%.
Christian Navas to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Oscar Hill.
Oscar Hill won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
16% better than Christian Navas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
5,712 and Christian Navas at a level of
4,931. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +8.2% and Christian Navas changes to -10.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.2% and for Christian Navas becomes -3.7%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 122% has been applied to his level change.
Given Christian Navas's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 129% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.6% and for Christian Navas is -0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 80%, Christian Navas: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 72%, Christian Navas: 65%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,202, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Christian Navas:
5,412, level confidence: 65%.