Diego Gobbi v Sartus Hall (Wed 26 Jun 2019)
Match won by Diego Gobbi. Result: 11-2,11-6,11-7.
Starting level for
Diego Gobbi:
21,984, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Sartus Hall:
5,263, level confidence: 27%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing
318% better than Sartus Hall.
Diego Gobbi won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Gobbi played
120% better than Sartus Hall in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Gobbi was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,027 and 21,984 without affecting his level.
In this case, Diego Gobbi played at level 12,772 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Gobbi would normally have been playing at level 14,087 (based on typical behaviour), Sartus Hall played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi changes to 0% and Sartus Hall changes to +4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Gobbi becomes 0% and for Sartus Hall becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Gibraltar Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Gobbi: 81%, Sartus Hall: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Gobbi: 59%, Sartus Hall: 38%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi:
21,984, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Sartus Hall:
5,383, level confidence: 38%.