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Stuart Macgregor v Diego Gobbi (Thu 27 Jun 2019)

Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 11-6,11-8,2-11,10-12,11-5.

Starting level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,271, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Diego Gobbi: 22,015, level confidence: 59%.
Diego Gobbi to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Stuart Macgregor.

Stuart Macgregor won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played 9% better than Diego Gobbi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of 21,532 and Diego Gobbi at a level of 19,703. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +10.9% and Diego Gobbi changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +3% and for Diego Gobbi becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Gibraltar Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 74%, Diego Gobbi: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 67%, Diego Gobbi: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Macgregor: 19,842, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Diego Gobbi: 21,575, level confidence: 69%.