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Paul Coll v Joel Arscott (Fri 28 Jun 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 62,658, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Joel Arscott: 10,907, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 474% better than Joel Arscott.

Paul Coll won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Coll was taking it easy by anything up to 46%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,179 and 62,658 without affecting his level.

In this case, Paul Coll played at level 25,381 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 33,750 (based on typical behaviour), Joel Arscott played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 33%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 13% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 7%.

As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 74%, Joel Arscott: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 41%, Joel Arscott: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 62,502, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Joel Arscott: 10,880, level confidence: 50%.