Carl Gable v Michael Aley (Tue 02 Jul 2019)
Match won by Michael Aley. Result: 5-11,2-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Carl Gable:
2,347, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Michael Aley:
7,972, level confidence: 59%.
Michael Aley to win as he is currently playing
240% better than Carl Gable.
Michael Aley won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Aley played
154% better than Carl Gable in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael Aley was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,610 and 7,972 without affecting his level.
In this case, Michael Aley played at level 5,958 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Carl Gable is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Aley: 77%, Carl Gable: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Aley: 66%, Carl Gable: 74%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Carl Gable:
2,343, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Michael Aley:
7,960, level confidence: 66%.