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James Flanagan v Nick Hiley (Thu 04 Jul 2019)

Match won by Nick Hiley. Result: 10-15,15-13,8-15,7-15.

Starting level for James Flanagan: 4,233, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,341, level confidence: 50%.
Nick Hiley to win as he is currently playing 3% better than James Flanagan.

Nick Hiley won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Hiley played 32% better than James Flanagan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Hiley actually played at a level of 4,918 and James Flanagan at a level of 3,737. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Hiley changes to +13% and James Flanagan changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Hiley becomes +4.8% and for James Flanagan becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Nick Hiley is +3.1% and for James Flanagan is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Hiley: 71%, James Flanagan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Hiley: 62%, James Flanagan: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Flanagan: 4,133, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,469, level confidence: 62%.