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Daryl Selby v Wes Cusick (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 39,270, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Wes Cusick: 8,807, level confidence: 66%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 346% better than Wes Cusick.

Daryl Selby won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 41% better than Wes Cusick in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 38%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,976 and 39,270 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 13,654, his level reduction is 9.7% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 24,251 (based on typical behaviour), Wes Cusick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 40%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -4.3% and Wes Cusick changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -1.4% and for Wes Cusick becomes +4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 83%, Wes Cusick: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 47%, Wes Cusick: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,667, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Wes Cusick: 9,228, level confidence: 46%.