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Daryl Selby v Alex Phillips (Sat 06 Jul 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 3-11,11-7,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 38,489, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Alex Phillips: 13,122, level confidence: 63%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 193% better than Alex Phillips.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 21% better than Alex Phillips in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Daryl Selby was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 22,426 and 38,489 without affecting his level.

As Daryl Selby has played below his allowed range at 18,850, his level reduction is 19% before damping. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 29,379 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 36%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to -10.7% and Alex Phillips changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes -2.6% and for Alex Phillips becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Brewin Dolphin Excalibur Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 68%, Alex Phillips: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 44%, Alex Phillips: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,463, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Alex Phillips: 13,625, level confidence: 51%.