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Daryl Selby v Richie Fallows (Sun 07 Jul 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 8-11,13-11,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,157, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 29,938, level confidence: 66%.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Richie Fallows.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 22% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 36,574 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Richie Fallows is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Richie Fallows changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 77%, Richie Fallows: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 77%, Richie Fallows: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 37,159, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,135, level confidence: 80%.