SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Alex Couch v Nick Hiley (Mon 08 Jul 2019)

Match won by Alex Couch. Result: 18-16,17-15,15-8.

Starting level for Alex Couch: 5,977, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Hiley: 4,438, level confidence: 61%.
Alex Couch to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Nick Hiley.

Alex Couch won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Couch played 37% better than Nick Hiley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Couch actually played at a level of 6,029 and Nick Hiley at a level of 4,399. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Couch changes to +0.6% and Nick Hiley changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Couch becomes +0.3% and for Nick Hiley becomes -0.5%.

Given Alex Couch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Alex Couch is 0% and for Nick Hiley is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Couch: 89%, Nick Hiley: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Couch: 88%, Nick Hiley: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Couch: 5,980, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Nick Hiley: 4,418, level confidence: 78%.