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David Wallond v Rob Dale (Tue 09 Jul 2019)

Match won by Rob Dale. Result: 11-15,15-17,5-15.

Starting level for David Wallond: 2,889, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Rob Dale: 2,891, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Rob Dale to win as he is currently playing 0% better than David Wallond.

Rob Dale won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Dale played 53% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Dale actually played at a level of 3,572 and David Wallond at a level of 2,338. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Dale changes to +21% and David Wallond changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Dale becomes +8% and for David Wallond becomes -8.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Rob Dale is +5.2% and for David Wallond is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Dale: 85%, David Wallond: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Dale: 69%, David Wallond: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 2,736, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rob Dale: 3,036, level confidence: 69%.