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Anthony Rogal v Perry Malik (Sat 29 Jun 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 13,415, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,844, level confidence: 60%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Anthony Rogal.

Anthony Rogal won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 26% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 15,842 and Perry Malik at a level of 12,570. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +16% and Perry Malik changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +4.3% and for Perry Malik becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Cumberland London Satellite 2019' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +3.9% and for Perry Malik is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 80%, Perry Malik: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 68%, Perry Malik: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 13,931, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,547, level confidence: 66%.