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Torrie Malik v Tim Luetchford (Tue 09 Jul 2019)

Match won by Torrie Malik. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Torrie Malik: 6,472, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Tim Luetchford: 1,855, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Torrie Malik to win as she is currently playing 249% better than Tim Luetchford.

Torrie Malik won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Torrie Malik played 137% better than Tim Luetchford in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Torrie Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 2,842 and 6,472 without affecting her level.

In this case, Torrie Malik played at level 4,476 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Torrie Malik would normally have been playing at level 4,560 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Luetchford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Torrie Malik changes to 0% and Tim Luetchford changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Torrie Malik becomes 0% and for Tim Luetchford becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Torrie Malik is 0% and for Tim Luetchford is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Torrie Malik: 80%, Tim Luetchford: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Torrie Malik: 66%, Tim Luetchford: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Torrie Malik: 6,462, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Tim Luetchford: 1,860, level confidence: 72%.