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Perry Malik v James Wass (Wed 10 Jul 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,556, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Wass: 6,934, level confidence: 60%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 110% better than James Wass.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 120% better than James Wass in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 14,901 and James Wass at a level of 6,773. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +1.3% and James Wass changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +0.6% and for James Wass becomes -0.9%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Wass's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is 0% and for James Wass is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 87%, James Wass: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 85%, James Wass: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,569, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for James Wass: 6,889, level confidence: 76%.