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Will Bennett v David Wallond (Thu 11 Jul 2019)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 14-12,3-11,7-11,12-10,8-11.

Starting level for Will Bennett: 3,072, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,736, level confidence: 65%.
Will Bennett to win as he is currently playing 12% better than David Wallond.

David Wallond won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 14% better than Will Bennett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,092 and Will Bennett at a level of 2,718. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +9.7% and Will Bennett changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +4.3% and for Will Bennett becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Berkshire Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +2.8% and for Will Bennett is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 81%, Will Bennett: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 71%, Will Bennett: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will Bennett: 2,972, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,809, level confidence: 71%.