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Ben Holding v David Wallond (Mon 15 Jul 2019)

Match won by Ben Holding. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-5.

Starting level for Ben Holding: 4,816, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for David Wallond: 2,809, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Ben Holding to win as he is currently playing 71% better than David Wallond.

Ben Holding won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Holding played 150% better than David Wallond in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Holding actually played at a level of 5,816 and David Wallond at a level of 2,326. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Holding changes to +15% and David Wallond changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Holding becomes +5.3% and for David Wallond becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Ben Holding is +3.4% and for David Wallond is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Holding: 84%, David Wallond: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Holding: 69%, David Wallond: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Holding: 4,974, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for David Wallond: 2,699, level confidence: 69%.