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Ruudi Clarke v Perry Malik (Tue 16 Jul 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-8,6-11,5-11,11-8,5-11.

Starting level for Ruudi Clarke: 7,164, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,572, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Ruudi Clarke.

Perry Malik won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 15% better than Ruudi Clarke in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Perry Malik was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,550 and 14,572 without affecting his level.

As Perry Malik has played below his allowed range at 9,312, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Perry Malik would normally have been playing at level 12,701 (based on typical behaviour), Ruudi Clarke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to -8.3% and Ruudi Clarke changes to +16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes -2.6% and for Ruudi Clarke becomes +5%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 62% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Ruudi Clarke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2019' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is -1% and for Ruudi Clarke is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 91%, Ruudi Clarke: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 68%, Ruudi Clarke: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ruudi Clarke: 7,355, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 14,403, level confidence: 68%.